南アフリカランドは、高い政策金利でスワップ狙いの投資先として人気があります。金利は高くとも底が見えないトルコリラに比べると安心感があります。
とは言え、金利が高い=リスクが高い、ということに変わりはないので、レバレッジをかけて取引すると、思わぬ暴落に見舞われて、ドツボにはまる可能性があります。個人的にはレバレッジ1倍を推奨します。
そんな南アフリカランドにスワップ狙いで長期投資した場合、どれくらいのリターン(税引前)が得られるのかをシミュレーションしてみました。
具体的には南アフリカランド円(ZAR/JPY)を
- 10年間、毎月定額積立した場合
- 半分最初に投資して、半分を10年間、毎月定額積立した場合
- 最初に全額一括投資して10年間保有した場合
の3つのケースで検証していきます。
注意事項
記載の検証結果は、記載の前提条件における検証結果であり、記載の無い検証も含めた平均的な結果を⽰すものではありません。
ここで紹介する検証結果はあくまで参考程度に留めてください。投資に関する最終的な決定は、ご自身の判断でなさいますようにお願い致します。
前提条件
- 投資元本は1,000,000円
- 運用期間は2009年4月〜2019年3月までの10年
- レバレッジ1倍で運用
- スプレッド(取引コスト)は1.8銭
- スワップは政策金利(下図参照)から計算
- 1000通貨分の購入資金(スワップと定額積立の合計)が貯まったら1000通貨購入
- 追加購入は月初に実施
グラフの単位は%
検証結果
ケース1は毎月定額積立、ケース2は半額一括投資・半額毎月定額積立、ケース3は全額一括投資です。結果から紹介すると、最初に全額一括投資したケースが最も高いリターンとなりました。
| ケース1 | ケース2 | ケース3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 保有数量 | 141,000 | 148,000 | 155,000 |
| 平均取得単価 | 9.32円 | 10.00円 | 10.65円 |
| 為替損益 | -223,071円 | -334,439円 | -450,296円 |
| スワップ収益 | 324,768円 | 490,850円 | 664,969円 |
| 損益合計 | 101,697円 | 156,411円 | 214,673円 |
| 年平均成長率 | 0.977% | 1.473% | 1.981% |
| ドローダウン | -26.90% | -27.93% | -28.43% |
年平均成長率(CAGR)は(10年後の評価価額÷元本)^{1÷(N–1)}–1で計算
どのケースでも利益が出る結果となっています。これは投資する上での安心材料と言えそうです。ただ同じ期間で比較した場合、メキシコペソの方がリターンが高いです。
メキシコペソ円に長期投資(積立/一括投資)した場合のリターンを検証
ドローダウンは一時的に最大資産から落ち込んだ場合の下落率でマイナスが小さいほど良いです。たとえば、100万円投資して、いきなりドローダウンが来た場合、-28万4300円の含み損になることを意味しまます。
以下、各ケースの保有数量、スワップ、利益の推移です。
保有数量推移
- ケース1
- ケース2
- ケース3
スワップ推移
- ケース1
- ケース2
- ケース3
損益推移は為替損益(評価損益)とスワップ収益の合算
- ケース1
- ケース2
- ケース3
追加購入したタイミングや獲得したスワップ、損益の状況は以下のとおりです。
ケース1:100万円を定額積立
平均取得単価:9.32円
為替損益:-223,071円
スワップ収益:324,768円
損益合計:101,697円
年平均成長率:0.977%
| 日付 | レート | 通貨数量 | 追加購入 | スワップ | 評価損益 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/4 | 11.6558 | 1,000 | 0 | 81 | -18 |
| 2009/5 | 12.0066 | 2,000 | 1,000 | 148 | 333 |
| 2009/6 | 12.4700 | 3,000 | 1,000 | 231 | 1,260 |
| 2009/7 | 12.1995 | 3,000 | 0 | 211 | 466 |
| 2009/8 | 11.9564 | 4,000 | 1,000 | 275 | -281 |
| 2009/9 | 11.9506 | 5,000 | 1,000 | 344 | -304 |
| 2009/10 | 11.5296 | 5,000 | 0 | 332 | -2,391 |
| 2009/11 | 11.6655 | 6,000 | 1,000 | 403 | -1,730 |
| 2009/12 | 12.5453 | 7,000 | 1,000 | 505 | 3,549 |
| 2010/1 | 11.8420 | 8,000 | 1,000 | 545 | -1,374 |
| 2010/2 | 11.5191 | 8,000 | 0 | 530 | -3,939 |
| 2010/3 | 12.8276 | 9,000 | 1,000 | 617 | 6,511 |
| 2010/4 | 12.7023 | 10,000 | 1,000 | 679 | 5,383 |
| 2010/5 | 11.8888 | 10,000 | 0 | 635 | -2,734 |
| 2010/6 | 11.5243 | 11,000 | 1,000 | 677 | -6,397 |
| 2010/7 | 11.8498 | 12,000 | 1,000 | 760 | -2,817 |
| 2010/8 | 11.4060 | 13,000 | 1,000 | 792 | -8,142 |
| 2010/9 | 11.9757 | 13,000 | 0 | 768 | -718 |
| 2010/10 | 11.4868 | 14,000 | 1,000 | 793 | -7,092 |
| 2010/11 | 11.7625 | 15,000 | 1,000 | 798 | -3,232 |
| 2010/12 | 12.2691 | 16,000 | 1,000 | 887 | 4,367 |
| 2011/1 | 11.4185 | 17,000 | 1,000 | 878 | -9,243 |
| 2011/2 | 11.7433 | 17,000 | 0 | 902 | -3,703 |
| 2011/3 | 12.2820 | 18,000 | 1,000 | 999 | 5,437 |
| 2011/4 | 12.3603 | 19,000 | 1,000 | 1,062 | 6,846 |
| 2011/5 | 11.9801 | 20,000 | 1,000 | 1,083 | -377 |
| 2011/6 | 11.8927 | 20,000 | 0 | 1,075 | -2,107 |
| 2011/7 | 11.4689 | 21,000 | 1,000 | 1,089 | -10,602 |
| 2011/8 | 10.9499 | 22,000 | 1,000 | 1,089 | -21,501 |
| 2011/9 | 9.5190 | 23,000 | 1,000 | 990 | -52,980 |
| 2011/10 | 9.8331 | 24,000 | 1,000 | 1,067 | -45,756 |
| 2011/11 | 9.5533 | 25,000 | 1,000 | 1,080 | -52,471 |
| 2011/12 | 9.5125 | 26,000 | 1,000 | 1,118 | -53,491 |
| 2012/1 | 9.7450 | 27,000 | 1,000 | 1,189 | -47,446 |
| 2012/2 | 10.8171 | 28,000 | 1,000 | 1,369 | -18,500 |
| 2012/3 | 10.7939 | 29,000 | 1,000 | 1,415 | -19,149 |
| 2012/4 | 10.2724 | 30,000 | 1,000 | 1,393 | -34,273 |
| 2012/5 | 9.1899 | 31,000 | 1,000 | 1,288 | -66,748 |
| 2012/6 | 9.7741 | 32,000 | 1,000 | 1,414 | -48,637 |
| 2012/7 | 9.4622 | 33,000 | 1,000 | 1,283 | -58,618 |
| 2012/8 | 9.3316 | 34,000 | 1,000 | 1,304 | -62,928 |
| 2012/9 | 9.3753 | 35,000 | 1,000 | 1,349 | -61,442 |
| 2012/10 | 9.2031 | 36,000 | 1,000 | 1,362 | -67,469 |
| 2012/11 | 9.2742 | 37,000 | 1,000 | 1,410 | -64,910 |
| 2012/12 | 10.2635 | 38,000 | 1,000 | 1,603 | -28,305 |
| 2013/1 | 10.2213 | 39,000 | 1,000 | 1,638 | -29,909 |
| 2013/2 | 10.2752 | 40,000 | 1,000 | 1,689 | -27,807 |
| 2013/3 | 10.2012 | 41,000 | 1,000 | 1,719 | -30,767 |
| 2013/4 | 10.8634 | 42,000 | 1,000 | 1,875 | -3,617 |
| 2013/5 | 9.9576 | 43,000 | 1,000 | 1,760 | -41,660 |
| 2013/6 | 10.0342 | 44,000 | 1,000 | 1,814 | -38,367 |
| 2013/7 | 9.9187 | 45,000 | 1,000 | 1,834 | -43,449 |
| 2013/8 | 9.5494 | 46,000 | 1,000 | 1,805 | -60,067 |
| 2013/9 | 9.7958 | 47,000 | 1,000 | 1,892 | -48,733 |
| 2013/10 | 9.7869 | 48,000 | 1,000 | 1,931 | -49,151 |
| 2013/11 | 10.0684 | 49,000 | 1,000 | 2,027 | -35,639 |
| 2013/12 | 10.0331 | 50,000 | 1,000 | 2,062 | -37,369 |
| 2014/1 | 9.1739 | 51,000 | 1,000 | 2,115 | -80,329 |
| 2014/2 | 9.4626 | 52,000 | 1,000 | 2,224 | -65,605 |
| 2014/3 | 9.7997 | 53,000 | 1,000 | 2,348 | -48,076 |
| 2014/4 | 9.7180 | 54,000 | 1,000 | 2,372 | -52,406 |
| 2014/5 | 9.6287 | 55,000 | 1,000 | 2,394 | -57,228 |
| 2014/6 | 9.5249 | 56,000 | 1,000 | 2,411 | -62,937 |
| 2014/7 | 9.6012 | 57,000 | 1,000 | 2,586 | -58,664 |
| 2014/8 | 9.7590 | 59,000 | 2,000 | 2,721 | -49,688 |
| 2014/9 | 9.7169 | 60,000 | 1,000 | 2,755 | -52,154 |
| 2014/10 | 10.1748 | 61,000 | 1,000 | 2,933 | -24,680 |
| 2014/11 | 10.7071 | 62,000 | 1,000 | 3,137 | 7,791 |
| 2014/12 | 10.3444 | 63,000 | 1,000 | 3,080 | -14,697 |
| 2015/1 | 10.0847 | 64,000 | 1,000 | 3,050 | -31,058 |
| 2015/2 | 10.2452 | 65,000 | 1,000 | 3,147 | -20,786 |
| 2015/3 | 9.9035 | 66,000 | 1,000 | 3,089 | -42,996 |
| 2015/4 | 10.0198 | 67,000 | 1,000 | 3,173 | -35,320 |
| 2015/5 | 10.2132 | 69,000 | 2,000 | 3,330 | -22,381 |
| 2015/6 | 10.0658 | 70,000 | 1,000 | 3,330 | -32,533 |
| 2015/7 | 9.7787 | 71,000 | 1,000 | 3,424 | -52,630 |
| 2015/8 | 9.1293 | 72,000 | 1,000 | 3,242 | -98,738 |
| 2015/9 | 8.6510 | 73,000 | 1,000 | 3,114 | -133,175 |
| 2015/10 | 8.7253 | 75,000 | 2,000 | 3,227 | -127,769 |
| 2015/11 | 8.5174 | 76,000 | 1,000 | 3,325 | -143,344 |
| 2015/12 | 7.7744 | 78,000 | 2,000 | 3,115 | -199,830 |
| 2016/1 | 7.6178 | 79,000 | 1,000 | 3,339 | -212,027 |
| 2016/2 | 7.1005 | 81,000 | 2,000 | 3,191 | -252,911 |
| 2016/3 | 7.6225 | 82,000 | 1,000 | 3,596 | -210,611 |
| 2016/4 | 7.4723 | 84,000 | 2,000 | 3,611 | -222,946 |
| 2016/5 | 7.0457 | 86,000 | 2,000 | 3,486 | -258,780 |
| 2016/6 | 7.0241 | 87,000 | 1,000 | 3,516 | -260,620 |
| 2016/7 | 7.3541 | 89,000 | 2,000 | 3,766 | -231,928 |
| 2016/8 | 7.0211 | 91,000 | 2,000 | 3,676 | -261,565 |
| 2016/9 | 7.3839 | 92,000 | 1,000 | 3,908 | -228,532 |
| 2016/10 | 7.7789 | 94,000 | 2,000 | 4,207 | -192,210 |
| 2016/11 | 8.1210 | 95,000 | 1,000 | 4,439 | -160,035 |
| 2016/12 | 8.5085 | 97,000 | 2,000 | 4,748 | -123,240 |
| 2017/1 | 8.3713 | 98,000 | 1,000 | 4,720 | -136,531 |
| 2017/2 | 8.5896 | 100,000 | 2,000 | 4,942 | -115,155 |
| 2017/3 | 8.2978 | 101,000 | 1,000 | 4,822 | -144,317 |
| 2017/4 | 8.3434 | 103,000 | 2,000 | 4,944 | -139,730 |
| 2017/5 | 8.4503 | 105,000 | 2,000 | 5,105 | -128,719 |
| 2017/6 | 8.6082 | 106,000 | 1,000 | 5,250 | -112,121 |
| 2017/7 | 8.3672 | 108,000 | 2,000 | 5,013 | -137,685 |
| 2017/8 | 8.4563 | 109,000 | 1,000 | 5,114 | -128,045 |
| 2017/9 | 8.2981 | 111,000 | 2,000 | 5,110 | -145,306 |
| 2017/10 | 8.0427 | 113,000 | 2,000 | 5,042 | -173,656 |
| 2017/11 | 8.2151 | 114,000 | 1,000 | 5,196 | -154,157 |
| 2017/12 | 9.1077 | 116,000 | 2,000 | 5,861 | -52,418 |
| 2018/1 | 9.2040 | 117,000 | 1,000 | 5,974 | -41,229 |
| 2018/2 | 9.0435 | 119,000 | 2,000 | 5,971 | -60,026 |
| 2018/3 | 8.9771 | 120,000 | 1,000 | 5,755 | -67,909 |
| 2018/4 | 8.7687 | 122,000 | 2,000 | 5,715 | -92,935 |
| 2018/5 | 8.5677 | 124,000 | 2,000 | 5,676 | -117,457 |
| 2018/6 | 8.0626 | 125,000 | 1,000 | 5,384 | -180,072 |
| 2018/7 | 8.4275 | 127,000 | 2,000 | 5,718 | -134,477 |
| 2018/8 | 7.5616 | 129,000 | 2,000 | 5,211 | -244,447 |
| 2018/9 | 8.0365 | 130,000 | 1,000 | 5,582 | -183,167 |
| 2018/10 | 7.6367 | 132,000 | 2,000 | 5,385 | -235,159 |
| 2018/11 | 8.1818 | 134,000 | 2,000 | 6,083 | -163,205 |
| 2018/12 | 7.6293 | 136,000 | 2,000 | 5,756 | -237,240 |
| 2019/1 | 8.2142 | 138,000 | 2,000 | 6,289 | -157,694 |
| 2019/2 | 7.9080 | 139,000 | 1,000 | 6,098 | -199,932 |
| 2019/3 | 7.7414 | 141,000 | 2,000 | 6,056 | -223,071 |
ケース2:50万円を初期投資/50万円を定額積立
平均取得単価:10.00円
為替損益:-334,439円
スワップ収益:490,850円
損益合計:156,411円
年平均成長率:1.473%
| 日付 | レート | 通貨数量 | 追加購入 | スワップ | 評価損益 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/4 | 11.6558 | 42,000 | 0 | 3,420 | -756 |
| 2009/5 | 12.0066 | 43,000 | 1,000 | 3,183 | 14,716 |
| 2009/6 | 12.4700 | 43,000 | 0 | 3,305 | 34,660 |
| 2009/7 | 12.1995 | 44,000 | 1,000 | 3,088 | 23,010 |
| 2009/8 | 11.9564 | 45,000 | 1,000 | 3,096 | 12,314 |
| 2009/9 | 11.9506 | 45,000 | 0 | 3,094 | 12,071 |
| 2009/10 | 11.5296 | 46,000 | 1,000 | 3,051 | -6,892 |
| 2009/11 | 11.6655 | 46,000 | 0 | 3,087 | -623 |
| 2009/12 | 12.5453 | 47,000 | 1,000 | 3,392 | 39,830 |
| 2010/1 | 11.8420 | 48,000 | 1,000 | 3,270 | 6,775 |
| 2010/2 | 11.5191 | 48,000 | 0 | 3,181 | -8,706 |
| 2010/3 | 12.8276 | 49,000 | 1,000 | 3,358 | 54,084 |
| 2010/4 | 12.7023 | 49,000 | 0 | 3,325 | 47,962 |
| 2010/5 | 11.8888 | 50,000 | 1,000 | 3,176 | 8,083 |
| 2010/6 | 11.5243 | 51,000 | 1,000 | 3,140 | -10,142 |
| 2010/7 | 11.8498 | 51,000 | 0 | 3,229 | 6,476 |
| 2010/8 | 11.4060 | 52,000 | 1,000 | 3,169 | -16,176 |
| 2010/9 | 11.9757 | 53,000 | 1,000 | 3,130 | 13,449 |
| 2010/10 | 11.4868 | 53,000 | 0 | 3,002 | -12,445 |
| 2010/11 | 11.7625 | 54,000 | 1,000 | 2,871 | 2,149 |
| 2010/12 | 12.2691 | 54,000 | 0 | 2,995 | 29,524 |
| 2011/1 | 11.4185 | 55,000 | 1,000 | 2,839 | -16,427 |
| 2011/2 | 11.7433 | 56,000 | 1,000 | 2,973 | 1,437 |
| 2011/3 | 12.2820 | 56,000 | 0 | 3,109 | 31,622 |
| 2011/4 | 12.3603 | 57,000 | 1,000 | 3,185 | 35,989 |
| 2011/5 | 11.9801 | 57,000 | 0 | 3,087 | 14,336 |
| 2011/6 | 11.8927 | 58,000 | 1,000 | 3,118 | 9,336 |
| 2011/7 | 11.4689 | 59,000 | 1,000 | 3,059 | -15,245 |
| 2011/8 | 10.9499 | 59,000 | 0 | 2,920 | -45,848 |
| 2011/9 | 9.5190 | 60,000 | 1,000 | 2,582 | -130,289 |
| 2011/10 | 9.8331 | 61,000 | 1,000 | 2,712 | -111,443 |
| 2011/11 | 9.5533 | 62,000 | 1,000 | 2,678 | -128,510 |
| 2011/12 | 9.5125 | 62,000 | 0 | 2,666 | -131,022 |
| 2012/1 | 9.7450 | 63,000 | 1,000 | 2,775 | -116,625 |
| 2012/2 | 10.8171 | 64,000 | 1,000 | 3,130 | -49,083 |
| 2012/3 | 10.7939 | 64,000 | 0 | 3,123 | -50,550 |
| 2012/4 | 10.2724 | 65,000 | 1,000 | 3,018 | -83,944 |
| 2012/5 | 9.1899 | 66,000 | 1,000 | 2,742 | -154,306 |
| 2012/6 | 9.7741 | 67,000 | 1,000 | 2,960 | -115,749 |
| 2012/7 | 9.4622 | 67,000 | 0 | 2,605 | -136,628 |
| 2012/8 | 9.3316 | 68,000 | 1,000 | 2,608 | -145,396 |
| 2012/9 | 9.3753 | 69,000 | 1,000 | 2,658 | -142,425 |
| 2012/10 | 9.2031 | 70,000 | 1,000 | 2,647 | -154,307 |
| 2012/11 | 9.2742 | 70,000 | 0 | 2,668 | -149,312 |
| 2012/12 | 10.2635 | 71,000 | 1,000 | 2,995 | -80,079 |
| 2013/1 | 10.2213 | 72,000 | 1,000 | 3,024 | -83,075 |
| 2013/2 | 10.2752 | 72,000 | 0 | 3,040 | -79,176 |
| 2013/3 | 10.2012 | 73,000 | 1,000 | 3,060 | -84,522 |
| 2013/4 | 10.8634 | 74,000 | 1,000 | 3,304 | -36,181 |
| 2013/5 | 9.9576 | 75,000 | 1,000 | 3,069 | -103,211 |
| 2013/6 | 10.0342 | 75,000 | 0 | 3,093 | -97,448 |
| 2013/7 | 9.9187 | 76,000 | 1,000 | 3,098 | -106,128 |
| 2013/8 | 9.5494 | 77,000 | 1,000 | 3,022 | -134,195 |
| 2013/9 | 9.7958 | 78,000 | 1,000 | 3,140 | -115,222 |
| 2013/10 | 9.7869 | 78,000 | 0 | 3,137 | -115,898 |
| 2013/11 | 10.0684 | 79,000 | 1,000 | 3,269 | -93,959 |
| 2013/12 | 10.0331 | 80,000 | 1,000 | 3,299 | -96,748 |
| 2014/1 | 9.1739 | 81,000 | 1,000 | 3,359 | -165,484 |
| 2014/2 | 9.4626 | 81,000 | 0 | 3,465 | -142,081 |
| 2014/3 | 9.7997 | 82,000 | 1,000 | 3,633 | -114,794 |
| 2014/4 | 9.7180 | 83,000 | 1,000 | 3,646 | -121,494 |
| 2014/5 | 9.6287 | 84,000 | 1,000 | 3,656 | -128,905 |
| 2014/6 | 9.5249 | 85,000 | 1,000 | 3,660 | -137,625 |
| 2014/7 | 9.6012 | 85,000 | 0 | 3,857 | -131,121 |
| 2014/8 | 9.7590 | 86,000 | 1,000 | 3,966 | -117,726 |
| 2014/9 | 9.7169 | 87,000 | 1,000 | 3,995 | -121,347 |
| 2014/10 | 10.1748 | 88,000 | 1,000 | 4,232 | -81,509 |
| 2014/11 | 10.7071 | 89,000 | 1,000 | 4,504 | -34,667 |
| 2014/12 | 10.3444 | 90,000 | 1,000 | 4,400 | -66,947 |
| 2015/1 | 10.0847 | 90,000 | 0 | 4,289 | -90,302 |
| 2015/2 | 10.2452 | 91,000 | 1,000 | 4,406 | -75,875 |
| 2015/3 | 9.9035 | 92,000 | 1,000 | 4,306 | -106,970 |
| 2015/4 | 10.0198 | 93,000 | 1,000 | 4,404 | -96,270 |
| 2015/5 | 10.2132 | 94,000 | 1,000 | 4,537 | -78,284 |
| 2015/6 | 10.0658 | 95,000 | 1,000 | 4,519 | -92,140 |
| 2015/7 | 9.7787 | 96,000 | 1,000 | 4,629 | -119,414 |
| 2015/8 | 9.1293 | 97,000 | 1,000 | 4,367 | -181,757 |
| 2015/9 | 8.6510 | 98,000 | 1,000 | 4,181 | -228,152 |
| 2015/10 | 8.7253 | 98,000 | 0 | 4,217 | -220,852 |
| 2015/11 | 8.5174 | 100,000 | 2,000 | 4,375 | -241,263 |
| 2015/12 | 7.7744 | 101,000 | 1,000 | 4,034 | -315,545 |
| 2016/1 | 7.6178 | 102,000 | 1,000 | 4,311 | -331,361 |
| 2016/2 | 7.1005 | 103,000 | 1,000 | 4,057 | -384,126 |
| 2016/3 | 7.6225 | 104,000 | 1,000 | 4,561 | -330,360 |
| 2016/4 | 7.4723 | 105,000 | 1,000 | 4,514 | -345,981 |
| 2016/5 | 7.0457 | 106,000 | 1,000 | 4,297 | -390,774 |
| 2016/6 | 7.0241 | 108,000 | 2,000 | 4,365 | -393,081 |
| 2016/7 | 7.3541 | 109,000 | 1,000 | 4,612 | -357,423 |
| 2016/8 | 7.0211 | 110,000 | 1,000 | 4,443 | -393,720 |
| 2016/9 | 7.3839 | 111,000 | 1,000 | 4,716 | -353,812 |
| 2016/10 | 7.7789 | 112,000 | 1,000 | 5,013 | -309,967 |
| 2016/11 | 8.1210 | 114,000 | 2,000 | 5,326 | -271,670 |
| 2016/12 | 8.5085 | 115,000 | 1,000 | 5,630 | -227,477 |
| 2017/1 | 8.3713 | 116,000 | 1,000 | 5,587 | -243,255 |
| 2017/2 | 8.5896 | 117,000 | 1,000 | 5,782 | -217,932 |
| 2017/3 | 8.2978 | 118,000 | 1,000 | 5,633 | -252,073 |
| 2017/4 | 8.3434 | 119,000 | 1,000 | 5,712 | -246,692 |
| 2017/5 | 8.4503 | 121,000 | 2,000 | 5,883 | -233,989 |
| 2017/6 | 8.6082 | 122,000 | 1,000 | 6,042 | -214,865 |
| 2017/7 | 8.3672 | 123,000 | 1,000 | 5,710 | -244,267 |
| 2017/8 | 8.4563 | 124,000 | 1,000 | 5,817 | -233,308 |
| 2017/9 | 8.2981 | 125,000 | 1,000 | 5,755 | -252,925 |
| 2017/10 | 8.0427 | 127,000 | 2,000 | 5,667 | -284,868 |
| 2017/11 | 8.2151 | 128,000 | 1,000 | 5,834 | -262,955 |
| 2017/12 | 9.1077 | 129,000 | 1,000 | 6,518 | -148,702 |
| 2018/1 | 9.2040 | 130,000 | 1,000 | 6,638 | -136,279 |
| 2018/2 | 9.0435 | 131,000 | 1,000 | 6,573 | -157,144 |
| 2018/3 | 8.9771 | 133,000 | 2,000 | 6,379 | -165,861 |
| 2018/4 | 8.7687 | 134,000 | 1,000 | 6,277 | -193,560 |
| 2018/5 | 8.5677 | 135,000 | 1,000 | 6,179 | -220,494 |
| 2018/6 | 8.0626 | 136,000 | 1,000 | 5,858 | -288,682 |
| 2018/7 | 8.4275 | 137,000 | 1,000 | 6,168 | -239,056 |
| 2018/8 | 7.5616 | 139,000 | 2,000 | 5,615 | -357,702 |
| 2018/9 | 8.0365 | 140,000 | 1,000 | 6,011 | -291,673 |
| 2018/10 | 7.6367 | 141,000 | 1,000 | 5,753 | -347,645 |
| 2018/11 | 8.1818 | 143,000 | 2,000 | 6,491 | -270,804 |
| 2018/12 | 7.6293 | 144,000 | 1,000 | 6,095 | -349,794 |
| 2019/1 | 8.2142 | 145,000 | 1,000 | 6,608 | -265,568 |
| 2019/2 | 7.9080 | 147,000 | 2,000 | 6,449 | -309,985 |
| 2019/3 | 7.7414 | 148,000 | 1,000 | 6,356 | -334,439 |
ケース3:100万円を全額一括投資
平均取得単価:10.65円
為替損益:-450,296円
スワップ収益:664,969円
損益合計:214,673円
年平均成長率：1.981%
| 日付 | レート | 通貨数量 | 追加購入 | スワップ | 評価損益 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/4 | 11.6558 | 85,000 | 0 | 6,922 | -1,530 |
| 2009/5 | 12.0066 | 86,000 | 1,000 | 6,365 | 29,800 |
| 2009/6 | 12.4700 | 86,000 | 0 | 6,611 | 69,670 |
| 2009/7 | 12.1995 | 87,000 | 1,000 | 6,106 | 46,389 |
| 2009/8 | 11.9564 | 87,000 | 0 | 5,985 | 25,258 |
| 2009/9 | 11.9506 | 88,000 | 1,000 | 6,051 | 24,735 |
| 2009/10 | 11.5296 | 88,000 | 0 | 5,837 | -12,295 |
| 2009/11 | 11.6655 | 89,000 | 1,000 | 5,973 | -354 |
| 2009/12 | 12.5453 | 89,000 | 0 | 6,424 | 77,967 |
| 2010/1 | 11.8420 | 90,000 | 1,000 | 6,132 | 15,355 |
| 2010/2 | 11.5191 | 90,000 | 0 | 5,965 | -13,688 |
| 2010/3 | 12.8276 | 91,000 | 1,000 | 6,236 | 104,059 |
| 2010/4 | 12.7023 | 91,000 | 0 | 6,175 | 92,675 |
| 2010/5 | 11.8888 | 92,000 | 1,000 | 5,843 | 18,628 |
| 2010/6 | 11.5243 | 92,000 | 0 | 5,664 | -14,888 |
| 2010/7 | 11.8498 | 93,000 | 1,000 | 5,888 | 15,040 |
| 2010/8 | 11.4060 | 93,000 | 0 | 5,667 | -26,215 |
| 2010/9 | 11.9757 | 94,000 | 1,000 | 5,551 | 26,749 |
| 2010/10 | 11.4868 | 94,000 | 0 | 5,325 | -19,190 |
| 2010/11 | 11.7625 | 94,000 | 0 | 4,998 | 6,726 |
| 2010/12 | 12.2691 | 95,000 | 1,000 | 5,269 | 54,328 |
| 2011/1 | 11.4185 | 95,000 | 0 | 4,904 | -26,461 |
| 2011/2 | 11.7433 | 96,000 | 1,000 | 5,096 | 4,377 |
| 2011/3 | 12.2820 | 96,000 | 0 | 5,330 | 56,111 |
| 2011/4 | 12.3603 | 97,000 | 1,000 | 5,420 | 63,609 |
| 2011/5 | 11.9801 | 97,000 | 0 | 5,253 | 26,748 |
| 2011/6 | 11.8927 | 97,000 | 0 | 5,215 | 18,270 |
| 2011/7 | 11.4689 | 98,000 | 1,000 | 5,081 | -22,857 |
| 2011/8 | 10.9499 | 98,000 | 0 | 4,851 | -73,701 |
| 2011/9 | 9.5190 | 99,000 | 1,000 | 4,260 | -213,947 |
| 2011/10 | 9.8331 | 99,000 | 0 | 4,401 | -182,833 |
| 2011/11 | 9.5533 | 100,000 | 1,000 | 4,319 | -210,551 |
| 2011/12 | 9.5125 | 100,000 | 0 | 4,300 | -214,613 |
| 2012/1 | 9.7450 | 101,000 | 1,000 | 4,449 | -191,381 |
| 2012/2 | 10.8171 | 101,000 | 0 | 4,939 | -83,081 |
| 2012/3 | 10.7939 | 102,000 | 1,000 | 4,977 | -85,442 |
| 2012/4 | 10.2724 | 102,000 | 0 | 4,737 | -138,617 |
| 2012/5 | 9.1899 | 103,000 | 1,000 | 4,279 | -249,050 |
| 2012/6 | 9.7741 | 103,000 | 0 | 4,551 | -188,860 |
| 2012/7 | 9.4622 | 104,000 | 1,000 | 4,044 | -221,003 |
| 2012/8 | 9.3316 | 104,000 | 0 | 3,988 | -234,568 |
| 2012/9 | 9.3753 | 104,000 | 0 | 4,007 | -230,023 |
| 2012/10 | 9.2031 | 105,000 | 1,000 | 3,971 | -247,950 |
| 2012/11 | 9.2742 | 105,000 | 0 | 4,002 | -240,466 |
| 2012/12 | 10.2635 | 106,000 | 1,000 | 4,471 | -136,608 |
| 2013/1 | 10.2213 | 106,000 | 0 | 4,453 | -141,063 |
| 2013/2 | 10.2752 | 107,000 | 1,000 | 4,518 | -135,367 |
| 2013/3 | 10.2012 | 107,000 | 0 | 4,486 | -143,267 |
| 2013/4 | 10.8634 | 107,000 | 0 | 4,777 | -72,412 |
| 2013/5 | 9.9576 | 108,000 | 1,000 | 4,420 | -169,351 |
| 2013/6 | 10.0342 | 108,000 | 0 | 4,454 | -161,060 |
| 2013/7 | 9.9187 | 109,000 | 1,000 | 4,443 | -173,552 |
| 2013/8 | 9.5494 | 109,000 | 0 | 4,278 | -213,788 |
| 2013/9 | 9.7958 | 110,000 | 1,000 | 4,428 | -186,948 |
| 2013/10 | 9.7869 | 110,000 | 0 | 4,424 | -187,909 |
| 2013/11 | 10.0684 | 111,000 | 1,000 | 4,593 | -156,962 |
| 2013/12 | 10.0331 | 111,000 | 0 | 4,577 | -160,862 |
| 2014/1 | 9.1739 | 112,000 | 1,000 | 4,645 | -256,251 |
| 2014/2 | 9.4626 | 112,000 | 0 | 4,791 | -223,899 |
| 2014/3 | 9.7997 | 113,000 | 1,000 | 5,006 | -186,162 |
| 2014/4 | 9.7180 | 113,000 | 0 | 4,964 | -195,376 |
| 2014/5 | 9.6287 | 114,000 | 1,000 | 4,962 | -205,485 |
| 2014/6 | 9.5249 | 114,000 | 0 | 4,909 | -217,300 |
| 2014/7 | 9.6012 | 115,000 | 1,000 | 5,218 | -208,620 |
| 2014/8 | 9.7590 | 115,000 | 0 | 5,304 | -190,455 |
| 2014/9 | 9.7169 | 116,000 | 1,000 | 5,327 | -195,314 |
| 2014/10 | 10.1748 | 116,000 | 0 | 5,578 | -142,180 |
| 2014/11 | 10.7071 | 117,000 | 1,000 | 5,920 | -80,451 |
| 2014/12 | 10.3444 | 117,000 | 0 | 5,720 | -122,869 |
| 2015/1 | 10.0847 | 118,000 | 1,000 | 5,624 | -153,272 |
| 2015/2 | 10.2452 | 119,000 | 1,000 | 5,762 | -134,333 |
| 2015/3 | 9.9035 | 119,000 | 0 | 5,570 | -174,977 |
| 2015/4 | 10.0198 | 120,000 | 1,000 | 5,682 | -161,155 |
| 2015/5 | 10.2132 | 120,000 | 0 | 5,792 | -137,929 |
| 2015/6 | 10.0658 | 121,000 | 1,000 | 5,756 | -155,636 |
| 2015/7 | 9.7787 | 121,000 | 0 | 5,835 | -190,357 |
| 2015/8 | 9.1293 | 122,000 | 1,000 | 5,493 | -268,952 |
| 2015/9 | 8.6510 | 123,000 | 1,000 | 5,247 | -327,305 |
| 2015/10 | 8.7253 | 123,000 | 0 | 5,293 | -318,148 |
| 2015/11 | 8.5174 | 124,000 | 1,000 | 5,425 | -343,737 |
| 2015/12 | 7.7744 | 125,000 | 1,000 | 4,992 | -435,869 |
| 2016/1 | 7.6178 | 125,000 | 0 | 5,283 | -455,426 |
| 2016/2 | 7.1005 | 126,000 | 1,000 | 4,964 | -520,107 |
| 2016/3 | 7.6225 | 127,000 | 1,000 | 5,570 | -454,335 |
| 2016/4 | 7.4723 | 128,000 | 1,000 | 5,503 | -473,410 |
| 2016/5 | 7.0457 | 128,000 | 0 | 5,189 | -527,997 |
| 2016/6 | 7.0241 | 129,000 | 1,000 | 5,213 | -530,780 |
| 2016/7 | 7.3541 | 130,000 | 1,000 | 5,500 | -488,210 |
| 2016/8 | 7.0211 | 131,000 | 1,000 | 5,292 | -531,500 |
| 2016/9 | 7.3839 | 131,000 | 0 | 5,565 | -483,955 |
| 2016/10 | 7.7789 | 132,000 | 1,000 | 5,908 | -432,228 |
| 2016/11 | 8.1210 | 133,000 | 1,000 | 6,214 | -387,071 |
| 2016/12 | 8.5085 | 134,000 | 1,000 | 6,560 | -335,533 |
| 2017/1 | 8.3713 | 134,000 | 0 | 6,454 | -353,900 |
| 2017/2 | 8.5896 | 135,000 | 1,000 | 6,672 | -324,666 |
| 2017/3 | 8.2978 | 136,000 | 1,000 | 6,493 | -364,059 |
| 2017/4 | 8.3434 | 137,000 | 1,000 | 6,576 | -357,857 |
| 2017/5 | 8.4503 | 137,000 | 0 | 6,661 | -343,194 |
| 2017/6 | 8.6082 | 138,000 | 1,000 | 6,835 | -321,580 |
| 2017/7 | 8.3672 | 139,000 | 1,000 | 6,452 | -354,838 |
| 2017/8 | 8.4563 | 140,000 | 1,000 | 6,568 | -342,453 |
| 2017/9 | 8.2981 | 141,000 | 1,000 | 6,491 | -364,601 |
| 2017/10 | 8.0427 | 141,000 | 0 | 6,291 | -400,594 |
| 2017/11 | 8.2151 | 142,000 | 1,000 | 6,472 | -376,304 |
| 2017/12 | 9.1077 | 143,000 | 1,000 | 7,226 | -249,555 |
| 2018/1 | 9.2040 | 144,000 | 1,000 | 7,353 | -235,784 |
| 2018/2 | 9.0435 | 144,000 | 0 | 7,225 | -258,878 |
| 2018/3 | 8.9771 | 145,000 | 1,000 | 6,954 | -268,457 |
| 2018/4 | 8.7687 | 146,000 | 1,000 | 6,840 | -298,675 |
| 2018/5 | 8.5677 | 147,000 | 1,000 | 6,729 | -328,021 |
| 2018/6 | 8.0626 | 148,000 | 1,000 | 6,375 | -402,271 |
| 2018/7 | 8.4275 | 148,000 | 0 | 6,663 | -348,248 |
| 2018/8 | 7.5616 | 149,000 | 1,000 | 6,019 | -476,419 |
| 2018/9 | 8.0365 | 150,000 | 1,000 | 6,440 | -405,659 |
| 2018/10 | 7.6367 | 151,000 | 1,000 | 6,161 | -465,629 |
| 2018/11 | 8.1818 | 152,000 | 1,000 | 6,900 | -383,319 |
| 2018/12 | 7.6293 | 153,000 | 1,000 | 6,476 | -467,299 |
| 2019/1 | 8.2142 | 153,000 | 0 | 6,973 | -377,791 |
| 2019/2 | 7.9080 | 154,000 | 1,000 | 6,756 | -424,658 |
| 2019/3 | 7.7414 | 155,000 | 1,000 | 6,657 | -450,296 |
まとめ
南アフリカランド円の投資は年0.977%〜1.981%のリターンが期待できます。政策金利6.75%ですが、それを上回る通貨の下落がパフォーマンスに影響を与えています。このリターンでは正直あまり妙味がないです。
国の財政状況などからつけられる南アフリカ国債の格付けは
- S&P:BB
- ムーディーズ:Baa3
となっていて、いずれも安定的です。リスクはトルコリラより低く、メキシコペソより高い水準です。
S&PはAAAからA、BBBからB、CCCからCという形で表記され、さらにAAからCCCまでに＋、−が付きます。
AAAが最も信用力が高く、BBBまでが投資適格と言われています。BB以下はジャンク級と呼ばれ、信用リスクが高いとされています。
ムーディーズはAaaからA、BaaからB、CaaからCという形式で表記され、さらにAa～Caaまでは1、2、3が付きます。Ba1/BB+以下はS&P同様にジャンク級、投資不適格級と呼ばれ、信用リスクが高いとされています。
ただし、格付けが安定的とは言え、2018年8月にトルコリラの暴落があったように、新興国通貨への投資は高いスワップがもらえる反面、当然リスクもあります。
なんにも考えずにスワップポイントが高いからとレバレッジをかけて新興国通貨に投資すると大怪我をします。
基本はレバレッジをかけずに、少しずつ投資金額を積み上げ、日々貯まっていくスワップポイントを眺めてニンマリとしているのが衛生上おすすめです。